Everyone is asking who wins the conflict. That is the wrong question. Ask a different one. If oil stops flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, who can actually absorb it? Because a closed strait hurts everyone, but it does not hurt everyone equally. It hurts the importers most. China. Southeast Asia. Europe. And it hurts the one economy that barely depends on that corridor the least. The United States is one of the few places the world can still go for energy in relative calm. That is the rea